Editor’s Note: This blog post was written by Amelie Gieseke, research intern at PRIF in the VORTEX project and supervised by Laura Stritzke who provided conceptual and editorial input.
Numerous scholars have attempted to explain why people gravitate towards radical narratives or even become part of a radical group. Certainly, various different explanations and models exist. In the following blog article, I want to draw attention to the importance of the polycrisis phenomenon (Lawrence, M. et al., 2024; Delannoy, L. et al., 2025; O’Reagan, M., 2023) as one possible contextual factor for an increased receptiveness to radical narratives. This is also an attempt to explain why individuals are drawn to radical narratives and beliefs in the first place. Aligning with the modern academic understanding of radicalisation, it is not understood as an all-or-nothing approach but rather as a spectrum ranging from first radical thoughts to extreme participation and violent actions (Trimbur, M. et al., 2021).
On a daily basis, we are confronted with seemingly never-ending news and global challenges such as ongoing wars, geopolitical issues, natural disasters or economic crises. While these crises and conflicts have often little similarities per se, ranging e.g. from the situation in Iran to an extreme earthquake in Venezuela, they all have something in common: these negative and often terrifying events affect people (Lawrence, M. et al., 2024; Delannoy, L. et al., 2025; O’Reagan, M., 2023; Oliinyk, O. et al., 2025). But how exactly do they affect individuals and how do they respond? Even though individuals are objectively exposed to the same broader crisis ranges, their subjective interpretations and experiences are not universal but differ fundamentallyv( O’Reagan, M., 2023; Charbonneau, B. & Giguère, A., 2025). Establishing a connection between the polycrisis and radical narratives, I will argue that the subjective perception and interpretation of the objective crisis-heavy environment can result in various political psychological trajectories including a possible increased susceptibility to more radical and extremist narratives. This blog article draws particular attention to the psychological consequences of persistent exposure to multiple, overlapping crises and conflicts in contemporary society.
The polycrisis, objectively defined by the occurrence of disparate crises ranging from slightly unsettling to fully catastrophic, increases possibly pre-existing feelings of uncertainty, volatility, complexity and ambiguity to societies and individuals. Now, the underlying psychological idea is simple: human beings are uncomfortable with this uncertainty (O’Reagan, M., 2023; Charbonneau, B. & Giguère, A., 2025; Delannoy, L. et al., 2025). A striking example is the Covid pandemic: people felt helpless and overwhelmed by the sheer amount of terrifying information and fake news. Additionally, it was completely impossible to adequately predict future outcomes. In general, the individual feeling of uncertainty created by singular crises and the polycrisis as a whole can be perceived as aversive and possibly even threatening to individuals. As a predominantly unconscious consequence, individuals are thus motivated to reduce this feeling of uncertainty or, on the contrary, seek certainty (Haas, I. & Cunningham, W., 2014; Webber, D. et al., 2018; Jaume, L. et al, 2026).
Subsequently, on a more subjective level, people engage in different ways to achieve this described motivation. Some people decide to become more active supporters of their governments, or their leaders: they trust in their responsibility and capability to manage different crises successfully (Lehrer, R. et al., 2024). Other people may believe more in a community-based approach, namely facing the polycrisis and its obstacles together as a group. However, people can also become more drawn to radical narratives, thus increasing the overall attractiveness of radical groups (Altungy, P. et al., 2025; Firdiani, N. et al., 2025).
This is the important connection between the subjective perception of uncertainty resulting from the objective crises environment and the political behavioural outcome, namely radical beliefs. Uncertainty can lead to an openness to new, alternative trajectories and radical groups may provide individuals with an overall sense of stability and certainty (Webber, D. et al., 2018). This could then satisfy their motivation to reduce uncertainty or seek certainty which could serve one explanation for why people are drawn to radical beliefs in the first place. Scholars also described this phenomenon, namely the feeling of uncertainty resulting in an open-mindedness to new ideas, as an exploratory stance (Haas, I. & Cunningham, W., 2014; Altungy, P. et al., 2025; Jaume, L. et al., 2026).
Within the scholarly world, multiple researchers have already examined and proposed the aversive feeling of uncertainty as a possible contextual factor for radical ideologies. Parallel to this idea, I want to propose a possible new use of Kruglanski’s Quest for Significance Model within the context of the polycrisis. Originally, this well-known explanation for violent extremist behaviour focusses on the fundamental psychological mechanism underlying individual engagement regarding extremism (Kruglanski, A., 2021; Firdiani, N. et al., 2025). I argue that the underlying premise of this model can also be transferred to the idea that the polycrisis presents one possible context for an increased susceptibility to radicalisation. Whereas both presented psychological theories offer different explanations for radicalisation, they both follow a similar rationale: radical groups may provide narratives that become more convincing when people are more drawn to alternative, new explanations as a possible result of the polycrisis (Webber, D. et al., 2018, Altungy, P. et al., 2025; Jaume, L. et al., 2026). Whereas the feeling of uncertainty and the quest for significance have been examined in detail, their possible function within the context of the polycrisis is rather less established in the literature.
The underlying premise of the Quest for Significance Model is that every human being has a need for significance defined as the need to feel important and valued by people (Kruglanski, A., 2021). While the polycrisis itself does not directly result in the experience of said loss of significance, the subjective perception of crisis-heavy situations can for some individuals overlap with the experience of a significance loss. Scholars have listed various possible ways that can lead to said significance loss including psychological perceptions of rejection, humiliation, (personal) failure, injustice, social and political dissatisfaction (Firdiani, N. et al., 2025). Here, one can also establish a possible connection with the aforementioned consequences of the individual feeling of uncertainty: while the feeling is per se not recognised as a ground for significance loss, one can regard it as an underlying, exacerbating factor influencing the other described grounds. These psychological perceptions are examples on the individual level but could be projected to larger groups or whole nations as well. This builds on two well-established ideas within the field of psychology: The Social Identity Theory and the Need to Belong explain that people have the natural need to belong and identify themselves with a group (Till, F.J. et al., 2025).
What does this mean? If a person, as part of a larger community or nation, experiences failure of said larger community or nation during e.g. a geopolitical conflict, the individual psychological perception can lead to a significance loss falling within the framework of Kruglanski’s model (Kruglanski, A., 2021). Similarly, e.g. the perceived ineffectiveness of international organisations when addressing and responding to present-day global challenges, may lead to increased dissatisfaction leading to the same outcome. Importantly, not only actual loss of significance is a trigger for the quest for significance but also the mere threat of significance loss or the outlook of significance gain can already suffice the activation of the described mechanism.
Now, when people experience a threat to their significance or a loss of significance, they become more interested in restoring their significance by searching for meaning, purpose, value or recognition in alternative narratives or trajectories. Joining or supporting a radical group can be motivated by general motivations that are common to any type of group: e.g. status, identity, searching for friends, need for protection from perceived threats (Munden, H.P. & Morrison, J., 2025). Similar to the argument used for escaping the feeling of uncertainty, radical groups may additionally promise unambiguous and clear-cut strategies for the perceived significance loss (Webber, D. et al., 2018). As a direct consequence, these groups become more attractive in times of great uncertainty and overlapping crises and people become more receptive to their radical narratives and opinions. It is important to mention that the need for significance does not automatically lead to radical thoughts and engagement. However, when the quest for significance becomes a dominant, overriding motivation, individuals may become more vulnerable to these alternative narratives (Firdiani, N. et al., 2025; Altungy, P. et al., 2025; Jaume, L. et al., 2026).
In conclusion, contemporary society is objectively shaped by the polycrisis, defined as a constant presence of various conflicts, disasters and crises. The psychological perception of the polycrisis may pose a threat to the natural craving for stability, certainty and significance. There is no universal approach following these psychological perceptions and the individuals’ interpretations and behaviours are highly subjective. I presented the increased receptiveness to radical opinions as one possible political psychological trajectory. Radical groups may promise certainty, value, belonging and structure, which seemingly restores the individuals’ quest for significance and the need to escape the aversive, individual feeling of uncertainty. However, radical beliefs are not understood as an automatic consequence of the overlapping crises. Instead, the polycrisis presents merely one possible factual context contributing to an increased receptiveness to radical opinions. Here, the important premise is not the existence of a singular crisis as a possible trigger but rather the constant exposure to various conflicts and crises at the same time.
References:
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